4.5 COVID-19 affected different population groups differently

Covid by the Numbers Report

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4.5 COVID-19 affected different population groups differently | I rerekē te pānga o te KOWHEORI-19 ki ngā rōpū taupori rerekē

4.5.1 Sex | Ira tangata

Figure 25 shows the cumulative number of reported cases per 100,000 people for males and females from 2020 to 2025. This pattern could indicate a higher propensity of females to report cases, or a higher case rate.

Figure 25: Cumulative reported COVID-19 cases in New Zealand by sex

Cases per 100,000 people, February 2020 to October 2025

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights

However, Figure 26 shows that males and females were equally likely to be admitted to hospital for COVID-19, suggesting that females were more likely to report cases than males. By 2025, cumulative admissions approached 1,000 per 100,000 for both sexes.

Figure 26: Cumulative COVID-19 hospital admissions in New Zealand by sex

Admissions per 100,000 people, February 2020 to October 2025

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights

Along with cases and admissions, deaths attributable to COVID-19 also rose sharply in males and females from 2022 (Figure 27), reflecting the major wave of infections during that period. Throughout the timeline, male deaths consistently exceeded female deaths, with the gap widening slightly over time. By 2025, cumulative deaths among males approached 100 per 100,000, compared with slightly below 90 per 100,000 for females, confirming that COVID-19 mortality was higher among men.

Figure 27: Cumulative COVID-19 deaths in New Zealand by sex

Deaths attributable to COVID-19 per 100,000 people, February 2020 to October 2025

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights
Note: COVID-19 deaths are defined as people who died with the cause of death being attributable to COVID-19 (that is, an underlying or contributory cause). Recent trends should be interpreted with caution to account for death coding delays.

4.5.2 Age | Tau

Figure 28 displays the number of reported COVID-19 cases by age group and sex. In terms of numbers of overall cases, there were fewer cases in the very young and the very old. Also, females reported higher cases of COVID-19 across most age groups than males. However, this provides a skewed view of how COVID-19 affected each age group, because there are fewer people in the older age groups. Because of this, we present the case rate for each age group in Figure 29. Rates of reported COVID-19 cases are more similar across age groups than the numbers of cases for males, and to a lesser extent for females.

The COVID-19 case rate for people aged 90 years-of-age and older is higher than for those between 60 and 90 years-of-age (Figure 29). Earlier reported cases in New Zealand were more concentrated in the young, but this shifted over time (Figure 30).

Figure 28: Total reported COVID-19 cases in New Zealand by age and sex, 2020–2024

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights
Notes: Cases where sex was unknown were around 0.1%.

Figure 29: Reported COVID-19 cases in New Zealand by age and sex, 2020–2024

Cases as a percentage of the population

Source: Case numbers: Ministry of Health, 'New Zealand COVID-19 Data', https://github.com/minhealthnz/nz-covid-data; Population: Stats NZ, Estimated Resident Population
Notes: Cases where sex was unknown were around 0.1%.

Figure 30: Share of reported COVID-19 cases in New Zealand by age group, 2020–2025

Source: Ministry of Health, 'New Zealand COVID-19 Data', https://github.com/minhealthnz/nz-covid-data.
Notes:
1. Note that 2020 and 2021 cases were much lower than in subsequent years. Combined they accounted for around 0.5% of cases. 2022 cases were 77% of total cases, 2023 cases were 16%, 2024 cases were 6%, and 2025 cases were 1%.
2. Cases where sex was unknown were around 0.1%.
3. 2005 covers the period 1 January to 13 October.

Hospitalisations and deaths were rare among younger people. Because of this, we report people aged under 60 years of age as a single group. People aged 80 years and above accounted for most hospitalisations and most deaths throughout the period (Figure 31 and Figure 32).

Figure 31: Hospitalisation for COVID-19 in New Zealand, by age group, 2022–2025

Hospital admissions per 100,000 people

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights
Notes: 2005 data cover the period January to August.

Figure 32: Deaths attributable to COVID-19 in New Zealand, by age group, 2022–2025

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights
Note:
1. COVID-19 deaths are defined as people who died with the cause of death being attributable to COVID-19 (that is, an underlying or contributory cause). Recent trends should be interpreted with caution to account for death coding delays.
2. 2005 data cover the period January to August.

Because there are far fewer older people in New Zealand than younger people, Figure 32 should not be interpreted as reflecting the relative risk of dying from COVID-19 for those age groups. In Table 2, we adjust for the size of the underlying population. The mortality rate for those aged under 60 is 3.1 per 100,000 – around one-twentieth of the rate for the whole population (that is 60.0 per 100,000). The mortality rate is significantly higher for those aged 70 and above. For those aged 90 and above, the mortality rate was 2871 per 100,000 population (that is a 1 in 35 risk of death).

Table 2: COVID-19 death rates in New Zealand by age group

Death rate per 100,000 people
Age group	0 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	80 to 89	90+	All ages
Death rate	3.1	37.3	146.0	704.1	2871.4	60.0

Source: Deaths: https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-professionals/data-and-statistics/covid-19/reporting Population: Royal Commission Phase Two calculations based on Stats NZ census data
Notes:
1. The deaths data are up to 5th October 2025.
2. Age group population is calculated from the 2023 census.

4.5.3 Ethnicity | Mātāwaka

Early COVID-19 cases in New Zealand were concentrated in the Pacific and Māori populations (Figure 33). The first major outbreak in late 2021 and early 2022 particularly affected Pacific peoples. Over time, rates of reported infections for European or Other people approached those of Pacific peoples, while reported rates for Māori and Asian populations were lower.

Figure 33: Cumulative reported cases of COVID-19 by ethnicity in New Zealand

Cases per 100,000 people, by ethnicity, January 2020 to October 2025

Source: Cases: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights; populations: Royal Commission Phase Two calculations based on Stats NZ census data
Notes: Data on community cases are sourced from a combination of the National Contact Tracing Service (NCTS) and EpiSurv (New Zealand's public health surveillance platform) databases. Since 24 February 2022, most testing has been through self-administered rapid antigen tests (RATs) which require self-reporting of results. Therefore, it is likely that many infections are not detected or reported, and the proportion of infections reported ('reported cases') may differ by age, ethnicity, deprivation or other demographic factors. The proportion of infections being reported (case ascertainment) has declined from peak ascertainment in March 2022.

Pacific peoples were more likely than other ethnic groups to be hospitalised in New Zealand for COVID-19 (Figure 34).

Figure 34: Cumulative hospital admissions for COVID-19 by ethnicity in New Zealand

Admissions per 100,000 people, January 2020 to October 2025

Source: Cases: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights; Populations: Royal Commission Phase Two calculations based on Stats NZ census data
Notes:
1. Hospital admission data used in this dashboard relates to hospitalisation for COVID-19.
2. For the inpatient Admission data, the health specialty associated with the hospitalisation is used to determine if the hospital stay may be related to COVID-19; this method rules out hospitalisations that are highly unlikely to be related to COVID-19.

When we look at mortality data, the highest proportion of deaths from COVID-19 were among the European or Other population, followed by the Pacific population (Figure 35).

Figure 35: Cumulative deaths rates from COVID-19 by ethnicity in New Zealand

Deaths attributable to COVID-19 per 100,000 people, January 2020 to July 2025

Source: Cases: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights; populations: Royal Commission Phase Two calculations based on Stats NZ census data
Notes: COVID-19 deaths are defined as people who died with the cause of death being attributable to COVID-19 (that is, an underlying or contributory cause). Recent trends should be interpreted with caution to account for death coding delays.

The data in the figures above, combined with that in section 4.4.2, suggest that older age had a greater effect on likelihood of death from COVID-19 than did ethnicity. This can be seen in Table 3, which shows death rates by age group and ethnicity.

Table 3: COVID-19 death rates in New Zealand by age group and ethnicity

Death rate per 100,000 people
Age group	Māori	Pacific peoples	Asian	European or Other	Age group (all ethnicities)
0 to 59	5.2	7.4	1.8	2.2	3.1
60 to 69	61.5	114.4	14.1	32.4	37.3
70 to 79	229.2	220.8	92.7	140.4	146.0
80 to 89	747.5	1045.1	538.3	704.3	704.1
90+	2557.4	4729.7	1727.9	2907.2	2871.4
Ethnicity group (all ages)	26.6	38.1	14.9	85.6	60.0

Source: Deaths: https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-professionals/data-and-statistics/covid-19/reporting Population: Royal Commission Phase Two calculations based on Stats NZ census data
Notes:
1. Deaths are assigned based on prioritised ethnicity.
2. The deaths data are up to 5th October 2025.
3. Age group population is based on prioritised ethnicity calculated from the 2023 census.

In almost all age groups, death rates from COVID-19 were higher for Pacific peoples than for other ethnicities. Asians had the lowest death rates. Māori had higher death rates than those with European or Other ethnicity, except in the 90+ age group.

4.5.4 Socioeconomic circumstances | Ngā āhuatanga ōhanga-pāpor

In New Zealand, a key measure of socioeconomic circumstances is the New Zealand index of socioeconomic deprivation (NZDep). NZDep combines nine variables from the census reflecting different aspects of deprivation.¹⁷ NZDep is calculated for 'meshblocks', which are small geographical units containing between 100 and 200 residents. Each meshblock is allocated a deprivation score from one to ten, where one represents the least extent of deprivation and ten the most. All people living in a meshblock are assigned the same NZDep score.

Residents in the most deprived areas reported fewer cases of COVID-19 (Figure 36) but were more likely to be admitted to hospital for COVID-19 (Figure 37), and were the most likely to die from COVID-19 (Figure 38).

Figure 36: Cumulative reported cases of COVID-19 by Index of Deprivation in New Zealand

Cases per 100,000 people, January 2020 to October 2025

Source: Health New Zealand I Te Whatu Ora, COVID-19 Trends and Insights
Notes: Deprivation measured using The New Zealand Index of Deprivation (NZDep). Least deprived equals the lowest three deciles (1–3). Mid-range = deciles 4–7. Most deprived = deciles 8–10.

Figure 37: Cumulative hospital admissions for COVID-19 by Index of Deprivation in New Zealand

Admissions per 100,000 people, January 2020 to October 2025

Figure 38: Cumulative deaths from COVID-19 by Index of Deprivation in New Zealand

Deaths attributable to COVID-19 per 100,000 people, January 2020 to October 2025

4.5.5 Distribution of reported cases by health district | Te tohatoha o ngā take kua whakamōhiotia mā ia rohe hauora

During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of New Zealand's public health system was organised regionally, through District Health Boards. Reported COVID-19 cases varied between health districts over 2022 and 2023 (Figure 39). When COVID-19 was at its peak in 2022, the Capital and Coast/Hutt Valley district reported the highest rate of COVID-19 cases (47.2 cases per 100 people, that is, 47.2%), followed by Canterbury/West Coast (with 45.3%) and South Canterbury (44.2%). The lowest rate of reported cases in 2022 was in Northland (33.2%).

Figure 39: Reported COVID-19 cases by health district in New Zealand

Cases per 100 people, by health district, 2022 and 2023

Source: Ministry of Health, COVID-19 cases: https://github.com/minhealthnz/nz-covid-data
Notes: Population: Stats NZ, Aotearoa Data Explorer

¹⁷ June Atkinson and others, 'NZDep2023 Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation: Research Report' (Wellington: University of Otago Department of Public Health, 31 October 2024), p 8, https://www.otago.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0026/593135/NZDep2023-Research-Report-31-October-2024.pdf