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Phase Two Main Report

1.1 Overview of Phase Two Tirohanga whānui o wahanga tuarua

Home Reports Phase Two Main Report Part 1: Setting the scene 1.1 Overview of Phase Two

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1.1 Overview of Phase Two | Tirohanga 
whānui o wahanga tuarua

1.1.1 What we were asked to do | Tā mātou i tonoa ai

 
Terms appearing in bold are explained in the chart below.

Phase Two of the Inquiry began its work almost immediately after the release of the Phase One report. Reflecting the Government's new terms of reference for this phase, our work has focused on decisions made in three areas of the pandemic response:

  • vaccines (decisions about vaccine mandates, the approval of specific vaccines and safety matters)
  • national and regional lockdowns, specifically the national lockdown of August-September 2021 and the extended lockdown in Auckland, parts of the Waikato and Northland through to December 2021, and
  • the procurement, development and distribution of testing and tracing technologies and non-pharmaceutical public health materials, specifically the impact of private sector involvement or non-involvement.22

Some of these matters (such as vaccine safety) were largely outside the scope of Phase One, so have been considered in Phase Two for the first time. Others have been revisited in more detail during this second phase – for example, the regional lockdowns and their consequences.

This phase of the Inquiry has concentrated on the key decisions Government took during the pandemic response and how they were made. Our terms of reference require us to consider whether – in each of the specified response areas – the Government's decisions:

  • were adequately informed by advice about the social and economic consequences they were likely to cause – especially their effects on social division and isolation, health, education, inflation, debt and business activity
  • reflected the advice decision-makers were given at the time
  • took account of experience and evolving practices in other comparable countries
  • struck a reasonable balance between pursuing COVID-19 public health goals, and minimising social and economic disruption
  • produced unforeseen consequences.23

Unlike Phase One – which surveyed the entire pandemic response – our analysis focuses on the period from February 2021 to October 2022.24 The significance of what happened during these 21 months cannot be over-stated. By the middle of 2020, Aotearoa New Zealand seemed to have stopped COVID-19 in its tracks, thanks to its adherence to an elimination strategy and stringent supporting measures: lockdowns, border closures, restrictions on gatherings and travel, contact tracing, compulsory testing and more. But the arrival of new COVID-19 strains – notably the more virulent Delta, first reported in the community in August 202125 – increasingly tested the elimination strategy. Two significant waves of infection occurred in 2022, accompanied by rises in hospital admissions and deaths.26 The population-wide rollout of vaccines transformed the pandemic landscape in this period, creating new options and challenges for decision-makers. So too did the steadily accumulating economic and social consequences of the pandemic, and the response. Throughout 2021 and into 2022, communities remained subject to restrictions and mandatory requirements that went further than anything Aotearoa New Zealand had ever experienced. As time went by, the country's sense of solidarity and shared purpose – so crucial to the initial success of the elimination strategy – began to fray.

Building a detailed understanding of the decisions made during this critical period is essential if New Zealand is to learn from the COVID-19 pandemic and be better prepared for the next one. This has been the impetus for Phase Two of this Inquiry

Phase Two: key terminology defined
Wāhanga Tuarua: ngā kupu matua kua tautuhia

Vaccine mandates

These are laws or policies that require people to receive certain vaccines. This report examines three types used during the COVID-19 pandemic: occupational mandates (government orders requiring people working in certain occupations to be vaccinated), workplace-specific vaccine policies (enabled by legislation but set by employers) and vaccine passes (Government-issued certificates that provided proof of vaccination and were needed to enter certain locations and social gatherings).

Lockdown

This is a compulsory order requiring the population of the country (or part of the country) to stay at home to limit the spread of a disease. Orders did not apply to certain roles and activities. In this Inquiry, the term refers to periods during the COVID-19 pandemic when the population was under Alert Levels 3 or 4, the most restrictive levels of the national Alert Level System.

Testing and tracing technologies

In a pandemic, these technologies can confirm who is infected by the virus and who is not. New Zealand used two main types of COVID-19 tests, both requiring nasal swabs. Polymerase Chain Reaction or PCR tests (which identify genetic material from the virus in the form of ribonucleic acid or RNA) were the first type used. Then, from early 2022, self-administered Rapid Antigen Tests or RATs (which detect protein from the virus) became the primary form of testing. Wastewater testing (routine sampling to reveal if the virus was present in municipal wastewater) was also used as a surveillance measure.

Key decisions

Our terms of reference define these as decisions with significant impact (potential or actual) on large numbers of people or groups, or with significant national and/or regional costs.27

Government

When discussing government actions during the period February 2021-October 2022, we refer to the actions of the sixth Labour Government led by Prime Minister Rt. Hon. Jacinda Ardern. Its second term ran from 6 November 2020 until the 2023 general election held on 14 October: it established this Royal Commission of Inquiry. However, when discussing the government's establishment of Phase Two of the Inquiry, we refer to the coalition Government (National/ACT/New Zealand First) led by Prime Minister Rt. Hon. Christopher Luxon, which took office on 27 November 2023.28

1.1.2 Two Inquiry phases: different but complementary | Ngā wāhanga e rua o te uiui: he rerekē, engari he tautoko anō tētahi i tētahi

The coalition Government elected in November 2023 decided to review the Inquiry's original terms of reference and sought public submissions on their possible expansion. Having done so, it considered that several 'matters of public concern' were outside the Inquiry's original scope and merited further examination. In June 2024, the Government announced a second phase would be held under new terms of reference.29

Two of the Inquiry's three commissioners (Chair, Professor Tony Blakely, and John Whitehead CNZM KStJ) were due to stand down after delivering the Phase One report. The Minister of Internal Affairs, Hon. Brooke van Velden, announced two new commissioners for Phase Two: Judy Kavanagh (a public policy and economics expert) and Anthony Hill (a lawyer, health system specialist and former Health and Disability Commissioner). They joined Grant Illingworth KC, who had been appointed as a Phase One commissioner in August 2024 after the earlier resignation of commissioner Hon. Hekia Parata. Mr Illingworth became Chair of Phase Two.30

The two inquiry phases can be described as distinct but complementary. As we have explained, they share a common purpose: to deliver lessons and recommendations that will strengthen the country's preparedness for another pandemic. While the Phase One terms of reference allowed for a panoramic view of the pandemic response – its health, economic and social dimensions and the legislative, policy and operational settings applying across the entire pandemic period – the scope of Phase Two is more narrowly focused on specific aspects of the response within a defined period. However, we have been permitted some leeway so have considered some developments outside the February 2021-October 2022 period.

Our terms of reference identify certain matters as out-of-scope. These include decisions made by clinicians, the health system reforms that were underway during the period, and the decisions of courts, tribunals and independent watchdogs.31 We have therefore not addressed these issues. Nor have we addressed a handful of in-scope matters for which, the evidence shows, the most significant decisions had already been taken and implemented well before February 2021. These are the procurement, development and distribution of non-pharmaceutical public health materials (such as masks and other protective equipment) and tracing technologies (such as the development of the NZ COVID Tracer app). The Phase One report addressed both topics, including in its lessons and recommendations.32

Like Phase One, we have operated in accordance with the principles of natural justice (procedural fairness) and have avoided taking a legalistic or adversarial approach. We too have drawn on evidence gathered from a broad range of sources which we have analysed, tested and weighed.

The legal advice that Crown Law (and other lawyers) gave Crown agencies during the pandemic is subject to legal professional privilege. Many passages from Cabinet papers and other documents – in particular, sections headed 'human rights' or similar – were redacted on that basis. The legal privilege held by the Crown can only be waived by the Attorney-General. We sought and were granted a partial waiver which allowed us to review some redacted information relating to key decisions within our terms of reference.

As for Inquiry procedure, Phase Two has handled some matters differently from Phase One, as our terms of reference permit. In Phase One people were interviewed or made submissions in confidence and access was largely restricted under section 15 of the Inquiries Act 2013. By contrast, Phase Two has worked on the basis that the evidence and submissions we received may be publicly accessible (although not immediately, in some instances) unless ordered otherwise.33 The specifics of these arrangements are set out in the five procedural minutes we have issued: these are available on our website.

In Phase Two, the Inquiry held a week of public hearings in Auckland from 7–11 July 2025. A second week of planned hearings was cancelled after former ministers declined to participate. They did, however, fully participate in interviews with the Inquiry and answered all questions. We are satisfied that we were sufficiently well-informed and had access to all evidence necessary to reach our conclusions.

The reports of Phase One and Phase Two are complementary: our report considers and draws on the earlier report, while taking care to avoid duplication. However, the reports stand alone. Our terms of reference allow us to present findings and recommendations that differ from those reached in Phase One. We have done so in some areas, largely where we have had the benefit of additional evidence or research that has let us develop, supplement or refine the Phase One findings and recommendations. We have departed from the Phase One findings or recommendations only when discussing matters falling within the scope of this second phase, however, and only on the basis of evidence provided specifically to us.34

Our evidence base | Tā mātou pūtake taunakitanga

In this phase of the Inquiry, we:

  • obtained nearly 8,000 documents from government agencies, using our powers under the Inquiries Act
  • held 29 interviews with former Ministers and senior public servants to examine specific decisions in detail, and to test hypotheses and possible conclusions
  • interviewed specialists and technical experts to better understand the scientific, economic and other evidence and to gain new perspectives on the Government's key decisions
  • conducted 54 engagements with communities, groups and individuals to listen to their experiences of the pandemic response and recommendations for future responses. These took place around Aotearoa New Zealand (Auckland, Hamilton, Northland, Wellington and Christchurch) as well as online. Participants ranged from healthcare providers to iwi-based social services, academic experts, business leaders, faith-based charities and local authorities
  • held a week of public hearings in Auckland (7-11 July 2025) where we heard from business leaders, medical peak bodies, education experts, advocacy organisations, sector and community representatives, ethnic community and cultural leaders, academics and representatives of particular population groups (including Māori, Pasifika, disabled communities, and people in remote locations)
  • received more than 31,000 public submissions from individuals and organisations
  • commissioned or undertook new research into the pandemic's impacts on education, and on businesses and the labour market. In these areas, we had access to another year of data and information beyond that available in Phase One. We wanted to capture this new knowledge so it could inform our lessons and recommendations
  • collated a large amount of publicly-available statistical information about the pandemic and response already held by government agencies, international organisations and researchers. The result is *COVID-19 by the Numbers*, which can be viewed on our website. As well as statistics, it includes the results of the research we commissioned, locating this information in the context of COVID-19 globally, other pandemics and diseases, and other events both local and international.

1.1.3 The importance of context | Te hiranga o te horopaki

A person's words or actions cannot be fairly or accurately interpreted if they are taken out of context. This is true in law and it has been true for the work of this Royal Commission. Our task has been to consider key response decisions, not through a post-pandemic lens or in isolation, but with regard to the circumstances in which they were made and the tools (such as vaccines, testing and tracing technologies, mandatory measures) available to decision-makers at that time.

Three contextual factors of critical significance for the Inquiry are:

  • the legal framework that applied to decisions taken by the Executive branch of government (comprising Cabinet and ministers outside Cabinet, supported by government agencies) in the period under review. This framework comprised legal rules and constitutional principles, as well as the human rights and freedoms which protect people from abuse of power
  • the principles and conventions that applied to decision-making by the Executive at the time – including decisions of Ministers and Cabinet, as the highest decision-makers within the Executive branch
  • the external circumstances in which government decisions were made, especially at times of extreme uncertainty and potentially grave danger for the population of New Zealand.

22 Royal Commission of Inquiry (COVID-19 Lessons) Amendment Order (No 2) 2024, Schedule 2 cl 4 (1), https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2024/0177/latest/LMS984331.html. As explained in section 1.1.2 of this chapter, the evidence shows that the most significant decisions relating to the procurement, development and distribution of non-pharmaceutical public health materials (such as masks and PPE) and tracing technologies (such as the development of the NZ COVID Tracer app) had already been taken and implemented before February 2021. These matters were assessed in Phase One and we do not address them in detail here.

23 Royal Commission of Inquiry (COVID-19 Lessons) Amendment Order (No 2) 2024, Schedule 2 cl 4 (3), https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2024/0177/latest/LMS984331.html

24 Royal Commission of Inquiry (COVID-19 Lessons) Amendment Order (No 2) 2024, Schedule 2 cl 4 (5), https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2024/0177/latest/LMS984331.html

25 The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was first identified in a MIQ facility on 31 March 2021. The first community case of Delta was announced on 17 August 2021, although the ESR later reported an earlier sample had been collected on 20 June 2021. McGuinness Institute, Covid-19 Nation Dates, 2nd ed. (Wellington: MCG Publishing, 2023), pp 204, 226

26 NZ Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned: Phase One, Main Report (2024), Part 2 Section 5.6.1.1, Figure 1, https://www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-lessons-learned/main-report/part-two/5-6-our-assessment

27 Royal Commission of Inquiry (COVID-19 Lessons) Amendment Order (No 2) 2024, Schedule 2 cl 4 (2), https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2024/0177/latest/LMS984331.html

28 New Zealand Parliament, 'Governments in New Zealand since 1856', updated 29 November 2023, https://www3.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/mps-and-parliaments-1854-onwards/governments-in-new-zealand-since-1856. The Labour Government remained in a caretaker capacity until 27 November 2023, when the new coalition government was sworn in.

29 Hon. Brooke van Velden, 'Next phase of the Royal Commission into COVID-19', 25 June 2024, https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/next-phase-royal-commission-covid-19

30 Hon. Brooke van Velden, 'Phase 2 of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons', 27 August 2024, https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/phase-2-royal-commission-inquiry-covid-19-lessons

31 Royal Commission of Inquiry (COVID-19 Lessons) Amendment Order (No 2) 2024, Schedule 2 cl 6, https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2024/0177/latest/LMS984331.html

32 NZ Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned – Phase One, *Main Report* (2024), https://www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-lessons-learned/main-report. See especially Part 2 Section 5.1 and Part 3 Sections 10.1 (Lesson 3) and 11.1 (Recommendations 13-19).

33 Royal Commission of Inquiry (COVID-19 Lessons) Amendment Order (No 2) 2024, Schedule 2 cl 8, https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2024/0177/latest/LMS984331.html  
Hon. Brooke van Velden, 'Next phase of the Royal Commission into COVID-19', 25 June 2024, https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/next-phase-royal-commission-covid-19

34 However, Phase Two has taken account of some of the same publicly-available information which Phase One of the Inquiry considered when making its findings and recommendations; this material informs our report too.

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